Quantum computing often sounds like a term more out of a sci-fi movie than the next big thing in transformative technologies, but investment in the industry has soared in recent years. In 2024, more than £1.2 billion was invested in quantum projects, with another £40 billion pledged by governments over the next decade to help […]
Quantum computing often sounds like a term more out of a sci-fi movie than the next big thing in transformative technologies, but investment in the industry has soared in recent years.
In 2024, more than £1.2 billion was invested in quantum projects, with another £40 billion pledged by governments over the next decade to help make the next-gen computing into a reality.
China is leading the way, according to a report from the Heligan Group, hosting an estimated funding of £13.3 billion in 2024, ahead of Europe (£7.2bn) and the US (£2.1bn). Japan and the UK round out the top five at £1.8bn and £1.3 bn respectively.
Overall, the quantum computing market is predicted to grow from £412 million in 2020 to £8.6 billion in 2027, though with the likes of Microsoft, Amazon, Google and IBM all developing their own machines, or partnering with Quantum Computing startups to provide quantum-based cloud services, this could be a significant underestimation.
Will Ashford-Brown, director of strategic Insights at Heligan Group, said: “Every day we inch closer to realising commercial quantum usage for real applications. Size, cooling, price, speed, and impact are all part of the long tail of improvements, but it would seem we are at the point where commercial application, investment and opportunity are knocking at the door.”
But what about commercial deployments? IBM recently told TI that it was aiming to have built a quantum machine with 1000 qubits by the end of 2025, at which point it should be able to challenge the performance of traditional, binary computers.
“Presently, the market has been mostly limited to national research laboratories and supercomputing labs. But commercial adoption is getting started, beginning with the tech giants”, added Ashford-Brown.
ChatGPT moment
Right now, the tech sector is living in an age of artificial intelligence, with the launch of ChatGPT thrusting generative AI into the limelight and transforming the landscape for tech vendors, their enterprise customers, and the public at large.
Quantum is often touted as the next big thing, but what is it, and when, if ever, will it also have a “ChatGPT moment”?
Quantum technologies leverage the principles of quantum mechanics, like entanglement and superposition, to develop new capabilities in areas like computing, communication, and sensing.
Quantum computers rely on qubits (quantum bits) to process and relay information. Qubits, which can simultaneously take different forms, allow quantum computers to make simultaneous computations that classical computers and supercomputers can’t.
The industry claims this can be used to revolutionise fields such as medical research, financial services, and machine learning, which all have processes that require the analysis of huge datasets.
Speaking to journalists ahead of World Quantum Day, Ramy Shelbaya, CEO and founder of start-up Quantum Dice, suggests looking for a tipping point in adoption is an unhelpful way of looking at the technology.
“Quantum technologies have a very broad range of uses, some of which are already being deployed at the moment, from end solutions to systems and architecture,” he explains.
“But we have some way to go before they demonstrate real utility. And I don’t think that tipping point is going to happen at the same time for everyone, or for all the different technologies and applications that will involve quantum.”
Founded in April 2020, Quantum Dice is a venture-backed spinout from the University of Oxford’s quantum optics laboratory.
The start up’s goal is to solve one of the longest-standing problems in computing: generating trusted and reliable randomness, with its range of DISC-protected quantum random number generator (QRNG) solutions being use cases in numerous sectors ranging from communication security to AI optimisation.
Shelbaya says that another difference between the advent of quantum and the ChatGPT moment is that generative AI has many consumer applications that captured the imagination of the wider public, and this opened the floodgates for AI, while quantum will primarily remain an enterprise play, which will slow the adoption curve.
Shelbaya was speaking to journalists on a call in which he was joined by two other quantum experts: Andrei Dragomir, co-founder and CEO of quantum-sensing startup Aquark Technologies; and Mandy Birch, an adviser to the UK’s National Quantum Computing Centre, and founder and CEO of quantum open architecture manufacturer TreQ.
Dragomir says that while he agrees with Shelbaya’s views on wider awareness, he does expect there to be a tipping point where quantum becomes much more accessible for enterprises. This, he adds, will be driven by firms resolving supply chain issues that currently limit the number of qubits that can be produced.
“There will be a tipping point but definitely not on the consumer level,” he explains. “Consumers will experience the benefit of quantum, but it will be in the background, on an infrastructure level. Things like Google Maps, for example, are already using atomic clocks, but consumers might not realise this. And quantum entanglement could be used to improve these use cases.”
Birch adds that she expects adoption to be much more gradual, driven on an application-to-application basis.
“I think we will start to see advantages initially in some applications,” she adds, “and then there will be new classical algorithms developed that outperform these breakthroughs.”
This, she adds, is likely to go on until quantum computing becomes more cost effective for use cases than traditional computing methods, both in terms of energy and money.
This could take up to five years, she adds, before use cases become more common, but it could happen faster if the industry adopts more of a shared access model.
“We are already seeing demand for sustained compute time, so while a shared access model could make business sense, I expect it will be spread across groups and sectors, for example pharmaceuticals, with several companies partnering to invest in quantum.”
Quantum cloud
Timelines for quantum remains a big question for the industry. In a report published by Economist Impact today, in line with World Quantum Day, 83% of quantum professionals believe we will reach “quantum utility” in the next decade.
The study, which surveyed quantum professionals across the UK, Europe, North America and Asia, found that only a third of professionals believe it will be reached within one-to-five years.
The experts believe quantum will play a major role as a critical enabler of energy resilience and sustainability, with three-quarters of respondents identifying climate modelling, monitoring, and power grid optimisation as core ways quantum will boost sustainability.
Beyond sustainability, the earliest use cases forecasted are in drug discovery and materials science (62%), and communication networks and cybersecurity (57%).
The report outlines some use cases, including how industry giants like HSBC and BT and global messaging apps like Signal introducing quantum-safe cryptography into their operations.
Quantum solutions are becoming available through cloud platforms, such as AWS and Google Cloud.
“Enterprises are looking at quantum compute capabilities to be deployed on the cloud, so they can be more easily accessed,” explains Shelbaya.
“Many of the major cloud platforms now have quantum solutions deployed there that can be used by enterprises, meaning any intense compute workload can be processed remotely, instead of on-premises.”
However, in some sectors, such as quantum communication, this isn’t possible.
He points to HSBC becoming the first BT customer to use its quantum secure metro network. The network, which was launched in 2022 in partnership with Toshiba, uses quantum key distribution (QKD) – an advanced form of encryption – to allow data to be moved in a highly secure way.
“If we take QKD as an example, they may be launched by startups but will be packaged in regular telecommunications networks. In HSBC’s case, this was provided by BT, who had partnered with Toshiba, and the deployment was managed by the service provider.
“As quantum becomes more common in enterprises, we will see more of these multi-layered collaborations.”
Security is another key market for quantum. Birch adds that “nimbleness” offers a sustained advantage for those who can manage it, because quantum is “a very complex technology”.
“Building out a workforce that can deeply understand how quantum technologies apply to that particular business model is going to be a major challenge,” she adds.
The long game
Despite all the positivity, quantum use cases remain few and far between, so despite huge investment, the quantum moment is still several years away.
David Sewell, CTO at Synechron, explains that the finance sector is set to be one of the areas that benefits most from quantum, but acknowledges that the technology in its current form is “still not accessible, usable, or economically viable for commercial use”.
Quantum computers can process large datasets much faster than classical computers, enhancing the capabilities of machine learning algorithms, he explains.
“This advancement would allow banks to analyse real-time data for better decision-making, risk assessment, and fraud detection. Quantum algorithms can potentially tackle complex optimisation and high-dimensional data challenges, benefiting areas like portfolio optimisation and credit scoring.”
This could enable banks to tackle a wider range of market scenarios while simulating potential outcomes, which could help improve risk management, and making markets more predictable, he claims.
“By analysing complex data patterns, banks can better anticipate customer actions, fostering loyalty and engagement, while also improving compliance monitoring to meet regulatory requirements,” he concludes.
But could the hype that is building around quantum see the technology go the same way as other “next big things” such as the metaverse or blockchain, which arguably fell flat in their actual applications?
“As with any new technology, there is always the possibility that the bubble might burst,” says Shelbaya. “But despite the investments in quantum growing, comparatively with something like AI, they aren’t actually that big at the moment.”
For all the impact of the likes of ChatGPT, there still isn’t that killer app, he argues, for generative AI. “It is still more of a playground, where people are much more talking about how they can use it, than actual deployments at full-scale.
“It took us decades before semiconductor and computer technologies became much more than an expensive lab machine, and it took many years for advances like flight to have meaningful commercial use. So, we have to play the long game.”
